Prediction models for short-term load and production forecasting in smart electrical grids

The scheduling of household smart load devices play a key role in microgrid ecosystems, and particularly in underpowered grids. The management and sustainability of these microgrids could bene t from the application of short-term prediction for the energy production and demand, which have been succe...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Ferreira, Adriano (author)
Outros Autores: Leitão, Paulo (author), Barata, José (author)
Formato: conferenceObject
Idioma:eng
Publicado em: 2018
Assuntos:
Texto completo:http://hdl.handle.net/10198/16415
País:Portugal
Oai:oai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/16415
Descrição
Resumo:The scheduling of household smart load devices play a key role in microgrid ecosystems, and particularly in underpowered grids. The management and sustainability of these microgrids could bene t from the application of short-term prediction for the energy production and demand, which have been successfully applied and matured in larger scale systems, namely national power grids. However, the dynamic change of energy demand, due to the necessary adjustments aiming to render the microgrid self-sustainability, makes the forecasting process harder. This paper analyses some prediction techniques to be embedded in intelligent and distributed agents responsible to manage electrical microgrids, and especially increase their self-sustainability. These prediction techniques are implemented in R language and compared according to di erent prediction and historical data horizons. The experimental results shows that none is the optimal solution for all criteria, but allow to identify the best prediction techniques for each scenario and time scope.