Non-computability, unpredictability, and financial markets

One of the most significant achievements from theoretical computer science was to show that there are non-computable problems, which can- not be solved through algorithms. Although the formulation of such prob- lems is mathematical, they often can be interpreted as problems derived from other elds,...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Graça, Daniel (author)
Formato: article
Idioma:eng
Publicado em: 2012
Texto completo:http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/1060
País:Portugal
Oai:oai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/1060
Descrição
Resumo:One of the most significant achievements from theoretical computer science was to show that there are non-computable problems, which can- not be solved through algorithms. Although the formulation of such prob- lems is mathematical, they often can be interpreted as problems derived from other elds, like physics or computer science. However no non- computable problem with economical or financial inspiration has been presented before.1 Here we study the problem of valuation: given some adequate data, find the value of an asset. Valuation is modeled mathemat- ically by the discounted cash ow operator. We show, using surprisingly simple arguments, that this operator is not computable. Since, theoreti- cally, financial markets should trade assets based on their fair value, our result suggests that unpredictability of such markets may partially stem from inherent non-computable behavior. A discussion of this result is also included.