| Resumo: | This study estimated the risk of listeriosis from Brazilian cheese consumption using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks associated to consumption of two cheese types were assessed: artisanal ripened semihard cheese (produced with raw milk) and refrigerated fresh soft cheese (produced with pasteurized milk). The semi-hard cheese model predicted Listeria monocytogenes growth or decline during ripening, while the soft cheese model predicted pathogen growth during refrigerated storage. Semi-hard cheese modeling scenarios considered L. monocytogenes starting concentration from −2.4 to 6 log CFU/mL in raw milk and three ripening times (4, 22 and 60 days). Soft cheese modeling scenarios considered L. monocytogenes starting concentration from −2.4 to 4 log CFU/mL in milk. The inclusion of anti-listerial lactic acid bacteria (LAB) in cheeses was also examined. Risk of listeriosis due to consumption of soft cheese was 6000 and 190 times greater than that of semi-hard cheese, for general and vulnerable populations, respectively. Aging semi-hard cheese reduced risk, and risk was influenced by L. monocytogenes starting concentration. Aging cheese with inhibitory LAB for 22 days reduced risk over 4 million-fold when L. monocytogenes was assumed to be 6 log CFU/mL in raw milk. The inclusion of inhibitory LAB also reduced risk of listeriosis due to soft cheese consumption, but not as much as for semi-hard cheese. QMRA results predicted that consumption of contaminated cheeses can carry a high risk of listeriosis, especially for vulnerable populations. Scenario analyses indicated that aging of semi-hard cheese and inclusion of antimicrobial LAB mix in semi-hard and soft cheeses are effective risk mitigation measures.
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