Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?
This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that rig...
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| Formato: | workingPaper |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Publicado em: |
2013
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| Texto completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/1822/25134 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Oai: | oai:repositorium.sdum.uminho.pt:1822/25134 |
| Resumo: | This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout. |
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