| Summary: | his study analyzes the influence of urban-geographical variables on determining heat islands and proposes a model to estimate and spatialize the maximum intensity of urban heat islands (UHI). Simulations of the UHI based on the increase of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), using multiple linear regression, in Iporá (Brazil) are also presented. The results showed that the UHI intensity of this small city tended to be lower than that of bigger cities. Urban geometry and vegetation (UI and NDVI) were the variables that contributed the most to explain the variability of the maximum UHI intensity. It was observed that areas located in valleys had lower thermal values, suggesting a cool island effect. With the increase in NDVI in the central area of a maximum UHI, there was a significant decrease in its intensity and size (a 45% area reduction). It is noteworthy that it was possible to spatialize the UHI to the whole urban area by using multiple linear regression, providing an analysis of the urban set from urban-geographical variables and thus performing prognostic simulations that can be adapted to other small tropical cities.
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