State Space Analysis of Forest Fires

This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual i...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Lopes, António M. (author)
Outros Autores: Machado, J. A. Tenreiro (author)
Formato: article
Idioma:eng
Publicado em: 2015
Assuntos:
Texto completo:http://hdl.handle.net/10400.22/6956
País:Portugal
Oai:oai:recipp.ipp.pt:10400.22/6956
Descrição
Resumo:This paper studies forest fires from the perspective of dynamical systems. Burnt area, precipitation and atmospheric temperatures are interpreted as state variables of a complex system and the correlations between them are investigated by means of different mathematical tools. First, we use mutual information to reveal potential relationships in the data. Second, we adopt the state space portrait to characterize the system’s behavior. Third, we compare the annual state space curves and we apply clustering and visualization tools to unveil long-range patterns. We use forest fire data for Portugal, covering the years 1980–2003. The territory is divided into two regions (North and South), characterized by different climates and vegetation. The adopted methodology represents a new viewpoint in the context of forest fires, shedding light on a complex phenomenon that needs to be better understood in order to mitigate its devastating consequences, at both economical and environmental levels.