Sovereign credit rating mismatches

We study the factors behind split ratings in sovereign credit ratings from different agencies, for the period 1980-2015. We employ random effects ordered and simple probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of different macroeconomic, government and financial variables. Our results show that...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Afonso, António (author)
Other Authors: Albuquerque, André (author)
Format: workingPaper
Language:eng
Published: 2017
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/13134
Country:Portugal
Oai:oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/13134
Description
Summary:We study the factors behind split ratings in sovereign credit ratings from different agencies, for the period 1980-2015. We employ random effects ordered and simple probit approaches to assess the explanatory power of different macroeconomic, government and financial variables. Our results show that structural balances and the existence of a default in the last ten years were the least significant variables whereas the level of net debt, budget balances, GDP per capita and the existence of a default in the last five years were found to be the most relevant variables explaining rating mismatches across agencies. For speculative-grade ratings, we also find that a default in the last two or five years decreases the rating difference between S&P and Fitch. For the positive rating difference between S&P and Moody’s for investment-grade ratings, an increase in external debt leads to a smaller rating gap between the two agencies