Fractional modelling and optimal control of COVID-19 transmission in Portugal

A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Rosa, Silvério (author)
Other Authors: Torres, Delfim F. M. (author)
Format: article
Language:eng
Published: 2022
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10773/34104
Country:Portugal
Oai:oai:ria.ua.pt:10773/34104
Description
Summary:A fractional-order compartmental model was recently used to describe real data of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal [Chaos Solitons Fractals 144 (2021), Art. 110652]. Here, we modify that model in order to correct time dimensions and use it to investigate the third wave of COVID-19 that occurred in Portugal from December 2020 to February 2021, and that has surpassed all previous waves, both in number and consequences. A new fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, with vaccination and preventive measures as controls. A cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out, and the obtained results are discussed.