The yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the Euro Area: A multicountry analysis
This paper revisits the role of the yield spread to forecast recessions in the Euro Area. We show that the contribution of the spread can be decomposed into the effect of future expected changes in short term rates and the effect of the term premium. This decomposition is achieved with the use of a...
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| Formato: | masterThesis |
| Idioma: | eng |
| Publicado em: |
2016
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| Texto completo: | http://hdl.handle.net/10362/18581 |
| País: | Portugal |
| Oai: | oai:run.unl.pt:10362/18581 |