The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU
We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget bala...
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| Format: | article |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
2022
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/25555 |
| Country: | Portugal |
| Oai: | oai:www.repository.utl.pt:10400.5/25555 |
| Summary: | We study the deviations between the budget balance ratio forecasts and outcomes in the European Commission semiannual vintage forecasts for the period 1998-2011. Our main conclusions are: i) there is evidence that the deviations of real GDP and inflation can explain the deviations of the budget balance ratio; ii) total investment growth deviations are also important; iii) unemployment rate deviations are not statistically relevant; iv) the fiscal rule index is not a statistically significant determinant of the budget forecast deviations; iv) higher than forecasted ratios of expenditure, revenue and debt for the EU are relevant; v) and expenditure-to-GDP deviations were larger than the revenue-to-GDP ones for the EU. |
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