Hindcasting with multistations using analog ensembles

A hindcast with multiple stations was performed with vari- ous Analog Ensembles (AnEn) algorithms. The different strategies were analyzed and benchmarked in order to improve the prediction. The un- derlying problem consists in making weather predictions for a location where no data is available, usi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Chesneau, Alexandre (author)
Other Authors: Balsa, Carlos (author), Rodrigues, C. Veiga (author), Lopes, Isabel Maria (author)
Format: conferenceObject
Language:eng
Published: 2019
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/10198/19863
Country:Portugal
Oai:oai:bibliotecadigital.ipb.pt:10198/19863
Description
Summary:A hindcast with multiple stations was performed with vari- ous Analog Ensembles (AnEn) algorithms. The different strategies were analyzed and benchmarked in order to improve the prediction. The un- derlying problem consists in making weather predictions for a location where no data is available, using meteorological time series from nearby stations. Various methods are explored, from the basic one, originally de-scribed by Monache and co-workers, to methods using cosine similarity, normalization, and K-means clustering. Best results were obtained with the K-means metric, wielding between 3% and 30% of lower quadratic error when compared against the Monache metric. Increasing the predictors to two stations improved the performance of the hindcast, leading up to 16% of lower error, depending on the correlation between the predictor stations.