Can a habit formation model really explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?

Verdelhan (2009) shows that if one is to explain the foreign ex- change forward premium behavior using Campbell and Cochrane (1999) s habit formation model one must specify it in such a way to generate pro-cyclical short term risk free rates. At the calibration procedure, we show that this is only p...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Autor principal: Vasconcelos, Jivago B. Ximenes de (author)
Formato: masterThesis
Idioma:eng
Publicado em: 2009
Assuntos:
Texto completo:http://hdl.handle.net/10438/2714
País:Brasil
Oai:oai:bibliotecadigital.fgv.br:10438/2714
Descrição
Resumo:Verdelhan (2009) shows that if one is to explain the foreign ex- change forward premium behavior using Campbell and Cochrane (1999) s habit formation model one must specify it in such a way to generate pro-cyclical short term risk free rates. At the calibration procedure, we show that this is only possible in Campbell and Cochrane s framework under implausible parameters speci cations given that the priceconsumption ratio diverges in almost all parameters sets. We, then, adopt Verdelhan s shortcut of xing the sensivity function (st) at its steady state level to attain a nite value for the price-consumption ratio and release it in the simulation stage to ensure pro-cyclical risk free rates. Beyond the potential inconsistencies that such procedure may generate, as suggested by Wachter (2006), with pro-cyclical risk free rates the model generates a downward sloped real yield curve, which is at odds with the data.